Coalition’s future uncertain after JSP split

National politics is becoming increasingly unpredictable, with doubts arising about the stability of the five-party coalition government. A significant blow came with the Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal experiencing a split, as seven lawmakers and 30 central committee members formed a new party under Ashok Rai.

The Election Commission on Monday issued a certificate of political party to the Rai faction of JSP as per the Political Party Act. However, there are no clear legal provisions regarding the party formation process in case an existing party splits. 

In 2021, the government led by the Nepali Congress had issued an ordinance to amend the Act to ease the split of political parties. Based on that ordinance Madhav Kumar Nepal and Mahantha Thakur formed new parties, the CPN (Unified Socialist) and the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, after splitting from the UML and JSP, respectively. The ordinance has since been repealed. 

The establishment faction of the JSP led by Upendra Yadav has argued that since the ordinance is no longer in effect, the new party under Rai cannot be legitimate.

Meanwhile, those lawmakers who have broken away from JSP claim that their actions were prompted by the intention to preserve the current coalition, as party Chairman Yadav, also the deputy prime minister and health minister, was considering withdrawing support from the government to form a new one. 

The latest development signifies the beginning of further rifts within both large and small parties, either to maintain or challenge the current government. The situation echoes the turbulence of the early 1990s, characterized by party splits, political maneuvering, and the manipulation of lawmakers. 

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his primary coalition partner KP Sharma Oli of CPN-UML are focused on retaining power or engineering government changes. 

JSP leaders say Prime Minister Dahal and CPN-UML KP Sharma Oli played significant roles in orchestrating the split to prevent the current coalition from slipping into a minority position in Parliament. Even if Yadav were to withdraw support, the current coalition is likely to retain a comfortable majority, with the assurance of the Rai-led JSP to support the Dahal-led government.

Another coalition partner, CPN (Unified Socialist), has also expressed discontent with the current arrangement, with its Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal publicly stating concerns about the government's stability. His recent remarks about certain leaders' reluctance to see him as prime minister hint at underlying tensions within this coalition. Nepal's dissatisfaction with provincial-level governance and appointments also suggests a deeper rift within the coalition.  

With a split in JSP, the Unified Socialist faces the challenge of keeping the party intact. There are suspicions that to prevent the current coalition from slipping into minority, Dahal and Oli could try to divide the Unified Socialist as well. 

The initial formation of the current coalition on March 4 saw Prime Minister Dahal sever ties with the NC in favor of incorporating UML and RSP. Within months of its formation, another specter of coalition split looms large.  The future remains uncertain, with no clear indication of how many more changes in government will precede the 2027 national elections. 

Nepal and Yadav are said to be in talks with the main opposition, Nepali Congress, to form a new government. There are reports that NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, Yadav, and Nepal have reached an agreement to lead a new government on a rotational basis until the next elections. 

The Nepali Congress, particularly Deuba and his supporters, are actively seeking to dismantle the Dahal-led government, proposing Unified Socialist Chairman Nepal as a potential prime ministerial candidate. However, opinions within the Nepali Congress vary regarding the formation of a new coalition, with some advocating for an alliance with JSP, RSP, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, and other fringe parties.

Deuba and his supporters were working to secure 138 seats (NC-88, RPP-14, JSP-12, CPN Unified Socialist-10, Janatmat-6, Nagarik Unmukti-4 and Loktantrik Samajbadi-4) required to form a new coalition. But with the JSP split, the NC is not in the position to secure the majority votes. 

Efforts to stabilize the government are also ongoing, with discussions between NC senior leader Shekhar Koirala and UML Chairman Oli about a potential collaboration between the two largest parties. However, opinions within UML are divided on this matter, with many opposing cooperation with the NC, their main competitor.

While Dahal and Oli may succeed in preserving the coalition, there is still risk of it falling into minority. Home Minister and RSP Chairman Rabi Lamichaane is under pressure to resign and facilitate the investigation against him for his alleged involvement in embezzlement of cooperatives money. If the government agrees to form a parliamentary probe panel as demanded by the NC, Lamichhane will have to resign. In that context, it is not certain whether the RSP will remain in the government. Calls within RSP to exit the government are growing, particularly following disappointing results in the Ilam-2 by-elections. 

The upcoming budget session of the House of Representatives, scheduled for May 10, adds further uncertainty. The NC has threatened to obstruct parliamentary proceedings unless a panel is formed to investigate cooperative scandals, potentially complicating the government's ability to present the budget.